We haven't learnt how to live in peace

It's a snow day today and school is close so I thought I might just indulge myself in a post as part of a cathartic process.

My subject today is a multi-dimensional one. Firstly, the times could means that we haven't learned to live in peace with one another. Secondly, it could means that we don't know how to live in "peace" as in peace-time condition.

A post Cold-war era ushered a period of unprecedented peace if we simply looked at the degree and level of cooperation and prevalence of neo-liberalism. It however meant that nations needed to see itself as one body rather than separate states. Everyone had the responsibility of keeping their house in order and to learn how to work with the rest. Like any human organ, no one part is great than another. The brain therefore cannot tell the heart that it is superior to it.

Unfortunately even as we are sucessful in ending wars. We fail to address the underlying suspicion and the conflicts between states. This is the state of the world we live in, evidence in the happening in international organisations like the UN, the media commentaries that invoke these biases and the very perception and attitude of people on the ground. Hence my conclusion of the fact that "We haven't learnt how to live in peace."

I balk at ridiculous notions of Western articles trying to say that because Asian economies saved to much (and in part because of lessons learnt in the Asian Financial Crisis) and hence we supposed and overconsuming America and send it to the slaugther house like a fatted calf. We just can't seem to get it right can't we and so we're the ones to blame for both Financial Crisis. How ridiculous is that? They might as well create a new conspiracy theory to say that it was a intentional and engineered economic assault that heralds a new era of warfare.

Sigh. The divisions of this world. Misunderstandings from being lost in translations. We truly need to listen twice as much as we speak.

Maybe only then we have a common vision and work TOGETHER for all the wonderous agendas of sustainable development, tackling global warming, ridding terrorism and issues of a global nature.

Economic Nationalism

During the U.S. Presidential Election debates last year, I do believe that readers of this blog remember that I've made the observation of some general and strong protectionist tendencies in President Obama. Read here. Of course, there was a strong showing of a commitment to the centre and his selection centrists advisers.

The true test of the pudding however is in the eating. Given the current economic crisis showing no signs of abating nor turning, the policy choices have been revealing. The Economist, undoubtedly one of my favourite periodical for being largely non-partisan and pragmatic has written a great piece in the upcoming issue featuring the revival of "Economic Nationalism". It's the of course another name for protectionism and the retardation of globalisation and international trade.

The article is listed here. http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?story_id=13061443&source=hptextfeature

In truth, I am extremely worried because it is so much more than their simply trade protection but capital flow protectionism. The impact from jamming world trade is going to make this economic downturn much more severe than it is and could potentially spark political upheaval all around the world and might even prompt revival of the very old enemy of communism or facisms that Obama has eloquently spoken to fight and declared victory over. This is highly unstable for the global order.

The world is indeed looking to the United States for leadership and I sense this with many of my peers here. This is especially so for the people from Asia as the region supports so many export-orientated economies.

This could however be President Obama's most glorious moment and opportunity if he can rally for a new and stronger international order. A global consciousness. Global citizenry. That the world acknowledge that they are economically entwined and need to cooperation and coordinate casting Realpolitik aside.

Singapore is in dire need of this new vision. Considering our boast as a global city, we are truly not and a segment of xenophobic and nationalistic Singaporeans have proven themselves to be myopic and dangerous. On one hand, I feel that our government will be able to make the right call but that might cost them politically because of the growing sentiments of nationalism. The anti-establishment groups and political entities via the blogsphere has totally capitalised on this moment and prove themselves to be nothing more than power corrupt opportunists. However, part of this blame must be laid on the government for not liberalising civil discourse earlier so that we may develop a more non-partisan civil society that is balanced and anchored on pragmatic and sound logic. Now, the emotive voice and gain momentum and will prove to be extremely difficult to stop and extreme.

We are living at a great turning point in history. As the Chinese always say that in every crisis (危机), there is great danger (危), but there is also a great opportunity (机) as well for a better and stronger international order that will send the not only the economic nationalist but the realist to the grave.

The Gazette on Gaza

There is an immense material out there for you to seem understanding on the conflict and the commentary come from both sides.

My personal favourite source is from RealClearPolitics. Here is the posts of the moment.

Thomas L. Friedman from the The New York Times speaking on the dangers of Iran leveraging on the Gaza conflict to negate the Obama effect.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/07/opinion/07friedman.html?_r=1

Jonathan Freedland wrote in the Guardian, arguing that the Israel offensive is a lost cause simply because Hamas is too rooted and the power vacuum from the removal of Hamas may be worse. I agree with this like Lewis Coser who believes that your opponents should not be broken and asymmetry complexify negotiations. (Functions of Social Conflict)

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jan/07/gaza-palestine-israel

An article from RealClearPolitics, that comments on the knee-jerk reaction of the Israeli political leaders and how this failure of a longer term vision will jeopardise the state of Israel.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/01/the_decline_of_israels_leaders.html

USA Today has one on the similar track, saying that tactical success will not bring lasting security from rocket fire.

http://blogs.usatoday.com/oped/2009/01/todays-debate-t.html#more

Last but not least, New York Post making a case of the perfidious acts of Hamas and how Israel will fall prey to it.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/01072009/postopinion/editorials/theyre_hamas_victims_148981.htm


I've also found many extreme posts, articles and blogs of both ends which I think is unnecessary here. I do not want to reinforce hatred but hopes to make a case of why Israel should go to the negotiating table rather than the battlefield and why Hamas need to back down from its dogma.

Again, this I point this tragedy to the lack of responsible and visionary leadership.

Going gaga over Gaza

The Palestine and Israeli conflict is perhaps one of the most protracted and simmering conflict in modern times. Although similar in the emotive aspect to Pakistan and India, there is one stark difference.

The fact that Palestinians don't yet have an official state and is in repression from Israel makes it different in terms of asymmetry of powers at play. Before we look into the media reports, and make sense of the carnage and verbiage, it's important to see how the people involved really see it. Thanks to my peers at Fletcher. I've come upon an excellent site where you get a real picture of the situation. It's a web documentary on the lives of people on both sides.

http://gaza-sderot.arte.tv

Why is watching and learning this important? Well, because it helps us to establish common denominators and common ground for peace and reaching compromise. It also helps understand where policy has gone wrong. It also provide a compass when navigating through the whole media verbiage and internet ramblings on the issue.

There is also a great need to look forward rather than look back. Re-establish trust and order and put the people's live back on track. Hamas agenda of resisting Israel and to oversee its destruction is pointless. To argue for the nation of Israel to be uproot is purely making the conflict intractable. At the same time, the reaction from Israel would only continue to prevent the Palestinians from getting back on their feet to elk out a normal and progressive lives and at the same time sow more seeds of discord and help Hamas recruitment. As game theory suggest, this is the lose-lose situation.

As much as I disagree with Israel's ground offensive, I think abhor Hamas even more for dragging its people into the conflict and misrepresenting them. This also is a demonstration of Rupert Smith's notion of the new regional wars that take place in population centers and involve non-state actors.

I cannot stress how non-state actors when having chosen the path of violence is so dangerous and destabilising for peace because they hold to no jus bellum, are not constrained by norms and use their asymmetry to legitimise their insurgency and non-discriminatory form of warfare.

As much as we get shocked that Israel has shelled a UN school killed many innocent or perhaps feel a moral obligation to speak out at the disproportionate death ratios suffered by both sides, I would like to also point out that the non-discriminatory firing of Kassim rockets into cities without designated military targets are terrorist acts, does not conform to the principle of proportionality and are perfidious.

It is also pointless to retrace history to determine who has the legality or legitimacy over the lands. It merely builds fortifies and entrench the positions that does not help ameliorate the conflict. In short, both sides seriously need to back off and achieve a peace settlement at the negotiating table. Hamas to act responsibly for the people and Israel to agree to self-determination of the Palestinians and cease the economic strangulation on the territories.

My two cents worth.

Role of Force

To relieve some stress and to show how complex the world can be, I present to you my visual map of the evolving security concepts in the world today.



This was created by VUE (Visual Understanding Environment by Tufts University.

Noam Chomsky's take on the election and state of democracy in the U.S.

I must say that I have utmost respect for Prof Noam Chomsky and his insightful opinions. More importantly, I identify with a good number of things which he says.

This is article that I am about to share. He mentions something very similar to what I have mentioned previously. That is about how the democratic election is a great advertising campaign and that we don't really know what the candidates stand for. That creates a weakness of delivering the people the policies that they want.

Anyhow, I won't spoil the fun and I need to write a real paper. Enjoy.

http://www.democracynow.org/2008/11/24/noam_chomsky_what_next_the_elections

The American Idol

Congratulations to Senator Barack Obama!

He has ran an awesome and inspiring campaign that has not only enraptured America but truly the world. For me, as a thinking and pragmatic student of international relations and political sciences, popping out the bubbly now is certainly way to early.

It has been wonderful the be inspired by the message of hope and change but now is where the rubber meets the road. The world is certainly watching what the most significant and popular U.S. president in recent times is going to do next. How is he going to embark on creating that change he promised?

The weight is enormous and already we have letters from former U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright (though this was not target at Obama specifically) and even from the Russian activist and chessmaster Gary Kasparov.

For me, my call is not too different. From my part of the world, it is our great desire to continue to see a strong and influential America. It's presence is the anchor of stability of the region even though people might not realise it. This strength and security provided is like oxygen and you know it's important only when you lose it.

To counter the American decline, the immediate task is to place the U.S. economy on recovery and to return to the roots of its original success. This is certainly not achieved by become a socialist and a welfare state because that will encourage government dependency and create a negative spending spiral. America needs to reinvent the American Dream and push its people to the leading edge of innovation by bold reforms in education to allow meritocracy and equal opportunity and ensuring standards. Given people fish instead of teaching them how to fish would turn "New England" to the problems of England itself.

The industries of the U.S. should continue to push ahead with more R&D, abandon low productivity, low tech and failing assembly line industries that can be easily copied and done at even lower cost by China, Vietnam and other emerging economies. Funds used for protectionism should be diverted instead for focused job retraining and to move American people to the higher level jobs. Promote enterprise and create a vibrant and entrepreneurial business environment with lower taxes, aids to SMEs and funds for research. It must also address what is known as the reverse brain or "Flight Capital" as described by David Heenan.

In international affairs, it must co-opt China, Russia and India to share the weight of the world. It must heal the divide between the West and the Islamic World and continue to encourage them to embark on the march to modernity. In Iraq and in Afghanistan, it must understand the need for these countries to manage and learn, despite failures. It must then use strategic and limited successes as useful points of exits. It must however, not fail to demonstrate resolve in dealing with the inhumane acts of terrorism.

The list of task is not exhaustive and the enormity of the task is unmeasurable. This requires a Herculean effort of good governance beyond a mere popularity contest. The real test of the Presidency has just begun.

My Op-Ed on China

The phenomenal economic growth in China for the past few decades has awed the world. Its consistency and resilience has made many analysts to forecast that its current growth trajectory is expected to continue. Proper management of this new found economic strength via good governance will enable it to perpetuate itself and increase economic, military and inevitably political power.

Although a detailed study of China’s growth in the economic, social, environmental and political dimensions reveal that there are potential speed bumps, a casual analysis would perceptively conclude that China is indeed rising by relative comparisons over time and is attempting to fulfill its stated objective of becoming a da guo (大国 – great power). Using a traditional realist lens, this rapid change of power dynamics would lead to a change in the balance of power not only for the region but between China, a rising power and the United States, the de facto superpower of the world today. This potential instability from China’s rise is therefore a motivation for us to examine these interactions closely so that we may understand potential areas of friction and perhaps generate appropriate recommendations for policy makers to avert a violent conflict.

Understanding China

China has a deep desire to be a daguo since the time of Sun Yat-sen, and this desire has been spurred by the many years of humiliation that they suffer from the foreign powers that took advantage of the weak Qing dynasty in late 1800s. While the rest of the world marched toward modernity from World War II, the Chinese were caught in a civil war between the Nationalist and the Communist. Although the eventual Communist victory brought stability to the nation, it was trapped in the ideological contest during the Cold War and remained isolated from the world. It was only during Deng Xiaoping’s time, that China was able to reverse its policies and put China on track for economic expansion and growth.

With economic growth, comes the associated cost of interdependence and the need to co-operate and build trust. The Chinese leadership understands this security dilemma and has been careful not to derail their valued economic growth through any perceived aggressive actions. Deng Xiaoping’s warning of bu yao dang tou (不要当头 - do not seek leadership) exhorts self-restraint and humility while the more recent and proactive policies of fuzeren de daguo (负责任的大国 – responsible great power) advocated by Jiang Zemin demonstrates China’s understanding of its interdependent relationship with the rest of the world. These are important markers of their intent based on explicit principles that we know China has a propensity to rigidly adhere to.

China’s interactions with Asia

Regardless of the historical perspective of the Middle Kingdom or the articulated grand strategy by the Chinese leadership today, they share a commonality. That is the desire to be a great nation that is built on a strong economic base, so that it may derive respect and acknowledgment from its periphery. China’s policy of non-intervention in sovereignty of states and her purely economic engagements for mutual benefits, has won it many friends in Asia and beyond, but at times drawn flak from United States and other Western powers for its mercantilist approach that often turns a blind eye to issues of human rights and potential security threats.

In Asia, it has engaged in many regional arrangements which includes ARF (ASEAN Regional Forum), ACFTA (ASEAN China-Free Trade Area), TAC (Treaty of Amity and Co-operation in Southeast Asia), ASEAN + 3 (ASEAN + China, Japan and South Korea), SCO (Shanghai Co-operation Engagement) and other bilateral agreements. These are significant confidence building measures that builds on the premise of their increasing mutual economic interdependence that will potentially extend to forge a regional security arrangement that will add to the stability of the region. China has also renounced the use of force on the issue of the Spratlys in the TAC, playing a backseat role as a demonstration of goodwill to Southeast Asian countries. The net effect of Chinese actions is the shared belief of the region to integrate China to the international community and to accommodate China’s rise, while at the same time tapping on China as an engine for their economic growth.

The Deal Breaker

The lynchpin of the stability in Asia is undeniably the tumultuous relationship between China and Taiwan. This is the single issue that China will neither relent nor compromise on and is willing to stake its relationship with other nations on. We need to recognize that any compromise on this issue will negate China’s position as a da guo, and reopen old wounds of humiliation that it is trying to heal. China will therefore continue to engage a multi-prong strategy of exerting its soft power to gain legitimacy of her claim over Taiwan and at the concurrently use her economic weight to bend Taiwan’s will to seek independence. As a last resort, the use of force will serve as deterrence and physical coercion that will be applied should Taiwan decidedly declares independence.

The US – China Equation

The issues of Taiwan will be the key determinant of Sino-American relations in the years to come. The contest between U.S. ideology and Chinese pride will continue to persist unless one party is willing to back down to de-escalate the situation and break the stalemate. This issue had persisted in times when China was weak and is even more unlikely to change now that it has grown in strength. Because China’s rise is now evident, the only recourse is for U.S. to strategically accommodate China’s key interest and to engage her need in meeting the world’s expectation of her to be a responsible power. It would be unlikely that both nations would desire to escalate the situation to the point of war unless there is a failure of institutions and leadership on both sides that believes some benefit can be derived from a violent conflict. U.S. suspicion of China’s rise and their stalemate involving Taiwan will invariably lead to more persistent and intense conflicts. Past conflicts of the Taiwan Straits incident in 1995-96, the bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, the U.S. spy plane incidents and the recent Chinese reaction to US sale of weapons to Taiwan are examples of what we can expect over the next decade. These conflicts will unlikely lead to violent conflict and will more likely result in the maintenance of a fragile status quo.

Obama as Beacon on the Hill

May be some people in their preferrential reading has concluded by my previous post on the US Presidential Elections that I am a McCain supporter. I am not.

I think I would like to correct that view as I have earlier mentioned that I was bipartisan in this whole affair and simply looking at the facts of this election.

In fact, I like the majority of the world, have a vested interest to see Obama elected. Here is a good Op-Ed piece by Nicholas D. Kristof of the The NY Times. The specific article I am referring to is http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/23/opinion/23kristof.html?_r=1&ei=5070&emc=eta1&oref=slogin

In concurrence with a previous editorial written by Kishore Mahbubani, Obama is a picture of the future of the U.S. and the healing of the great divide between the East and the West and also Islam and the West. His presidency may well help the United States reverse course in its declining soft power. This is the representation of the sheer potential of change that he is able to bring and I certainly hope he will be able to do it.

I however stand by what I have said in my previous post. As the man who can possibly bridge the divide between the West and Rest and repair US tarnishing image, he cannot become an isolationist nor allow the US to become a paper tiger. The world will inevitably become a more unstable and dangerous place.

Of course my personal preference would be for China to take an increasingly large role in world leadership but that is a far away dream if I understand Chinese mentality and psyche well enough. Not only that, Chinese leadership has already expressed a clear doctrine to avoid being the leader but merely being the cheerleader or supporting cast. Hence, all our hopes are still pinned firmly on the United States of America.

A Role Model - Kishore Mahbubani

Hello Fletcherites and readers of this blog,

Being a 2nd generation citizen of Singapore and having enjoyed the fruits of good governance, I certain that it is of no surprise that I am a great admirer of our founding father, Mentor Minister Lee Kuan Yew. I dare say that the success and the strong foundations of this tiny island nation were the life work of this great man.

Today however, I would like to introduce another role model for me. He is none other than Kishore Mahbubani, Dean of Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. I vaguely remember my first introduction to this great thinker during a special forum held in my high school and he was the Permanent Secretary (Policy) at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs then. I was raptured by his clarity of thought and his ability to communicate clearly on issues of foreign policy and governance. For the moment on, I have always found myself drawn to his writings whenever I encounter them.

He has written a new of book on the emergence of the East. Ironically, his first book has a title that says, "Can Asian's think?". I have also found his commentaries on US Foreign Policy particularly insightful. On some quarters, his articulate and frank comments has not only drawn controversy and the ire of some Western journalists and commentaries who rejects his pro-Asian ideas.

I think the last article I read was one which he commented on the 3 presidential candidates of John McCain, Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barrack Obama. I think it was expressed that he was most in favour of an Obama presidency.

More interestingly, I found that he is no stranger to Tufts University. He was also given the 2003–2004 Dr Jean Mayer Global Citizenship Award by the Institute for Global Leadership (IGL) at Tufts University.

I guess if there anyone is willing to read his works with an open mind, it would yield much value in my opinion.

Anyhow, here are some cool Youtube Videos of him at the Carnegie Council.





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